We have never been wrong.
We have merely been early.
Long-only · Concentrated · Results Pending
Investment Philosophy
“We do not predict markets. We identify them in hindsight with remarkable precision, and position forward accordingly.”
TE was founded on the belief that superior returns belong to those with superior conviction—or, failing that, a Bloomberg terminal and a high tolerance for being wrong in a sophisticated way. We invest at inflection points. We have never missed one in retrospect.
01
Every position begins with a 400-page investment memo that three people will read. We stress-test our assumptions until they break, then replace them with better assumptions that will also eventually break. This is called rigor.
02
We run a concentrated portfolio because diversification is a confession that you don’t know what you’re doing. We know what we’re doing. Most of the time. The rest of the time, we are early.
03
We hold positions through multiple earnings misses, two management changes, one SEC inquiry, and whatever you want to call what happened in Q4 2022. Time horizon is our edge.
Focus Areas
We focus on industries where our research generates genuine insight, or at minimum, a compelling narrative. Our coverage spans $47 trillion in global market cap, monitored via three Bloomberg terminals and one Reuters account we share with the analyst.
Technology Infrastructure
Structurally long compute. The thesis has survived four AI winters. It will survive this one.
Healthcare Innovation
Large, defensible, litigation-adjacent. Exactly our kind of business.
Financial Services
We understand banks. We think. Coverage is ongoing and inconclusive.
Consumer & Brand
Premium brands with pricing power. Researched from offices where a sandwich costs $24.
Industrial Technology
Unsexy, durable, under-covered by analysts whose LinkedIn says “ex-Goldman.” Our edge.
Energy & Geopolitics
We dispatched an analyst to the Strait of Hormuz in Q3. He has not returned. We remain overweight.
Trade Highlights (Selected)
Historical and current positions. Returns available upon request. Some requests will be respectfully declined.
A century-old institution with a fortress balance sheet and unmatched fixed income distribution. Our 400-page memo identified sixteen reasons Lehman was structurally undervalued. We stand by fifteen of them.
The internet represents a paradigm shift of historic magnitude. Eyeballs are the new earnings. We sized accordingly, with high conviction, across 23 positions. The memo won an internal award.
Current price pressures are temporary. Rate normalization will be gradual. We have positioned accordingly in 30-year Treasuries and a basket of high-multiple growth. Consensus agrees. Consensus is rarely wrong.
Europe’s dependency on Russian natural gas is a feature, not a bug, of the global energy supply chain. Our analyst filed a 280-page note. It was the most-read piece we published in 2021. A tribute, of sorts.
Research & Insights
Monthly letters to our partnership. Candid, unsparing, and occasionally accurate. Available to qualified investors who have signed the NDA and agreed not to read them aloud in public.
Tariff Anxiety and the Art of Overreaction
Markets have a long history of rewarding those who hold their nerve through episodes of political theater. We intend to hold ours.
NVIDIA: A Premium Priced Commodity in a Cyclical Industry
At 80× trailing earnings, the market is pricing NVIDIA as though it has achieved a structural monopoly. We believe this assessment is incorrect on both counts.
The Homebuilder Opportunity: Secular Tailwinds in a Momentary Correction
The subprime dislocation is real, but contained to a narrow origination segment. The long-term thesis is unambiguous.
The Internet’s Third Act: Why the Digital Century Has Barely Begun
We are writing at what we believe will be remembered as one of the great inflection points in economic history. We have rarely held conviction at this level.
The Partnership
Managing Partner
Founder & Chief Investment Officer
Has held the view that markets are “broadly efficient except where they aren’t” since 2019. Reads 400 pages of research per week, retains approximately 60%. Owns three Bloomberg terminals—one for work, one for redundancy, and one streaming CNBC on mute since 2022 as a psychological control.
The Analyst
Research, Strategy & Existential Risk
Joined TE to “get closer to the market.” Has not left the office since Q4 2023. Covers 14 sectors. Sleeps 4.5 hours per night, which he describes as “enough, given the macro environment.” Currently on assignment in the Strait of Hormuz. Update pending.
Advisory Council
Former Operators & Emeritus Thinkers
A distinguished network of ex-central bankers, former operators, and one man who accurately predicted the 2008 crisis and has been predicting the next one every year since. Their insights inform our process. Their confidence informs our marketing materials.
Select Inquiries Only
TE partners with a highly select group of investors who share our commitment to rigorous analysis, long-term thinking, and not asking about Q3 2021. If you believe you qualify, you may submit an inquiry. We review applications at our discretion, which is to say, slowly.
Investor Inquiries
investors@te-capital.com (monitored)
Research Subscriptions
research@te-capital.com (2–14 business days)
Press & Media
We do not speak to the press. This is not a policy so much as a posture.